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Natural Gas Price Fundamental Daily Forecast

Natural gas futures closed lower on Friday following a strong surge the previous session. The trend turned up earlier in the week, but the inside move on Friday suggests investor indecision and impending volatility. Thursday’s better-than-expected government storage report and new weather forecasts may have been the catalysts behind the move.

On Friday, June natural gas futures settled at $2.818, down $0.013 or -0.46%.

Falling spot prices also influenced the trade. According to Natural Gas Intelligence (NGI), spot gas prices continued to come off recent peaks in much of the country with the focus turning to the near-perfect weather pattern for the final week of April into early May. NGI’s Spot Gas National Average slipped 1.5 cents to $2.570.

Short-Term Weather Outlook

Bespoke Weather Services said with the colder weather on the way out, the market can finally close the books on “heating degree day season” and begin looking toward the time when warmth starts bringing a material level of cooling degree days (CDD) into the picture.

“We do not yet see that, as the warmer-than-normal conditions we see coming into the eastern third of the U.S.” through the first week of May is not strong enough to boost demand significantly in the East, Bespoke said. “We do not yet see that, as the warmer-than-normal conditions we see coming into the eastern third of the U.S.” through the first week of May is not strong enough to boost demand significantly in the East, Bespoke said. “We will pick up some CDDs in Texas and other parts of the South, but this is typical for the end of April into early May.”

US Energy Information Administration Weekly Storage Report

The EIA reported on Thursday that domestic supplies of natural gas rose by 38 billion cubic feet (Bcf) for the week-ended April 16. That just about matched an average increase of 37 Bcf forecast by analysts polled by S&P Global Platts.

Total stocks now stand at 1.883 trillion cubic feet (Tcf), down 251 Bcf from a year ago but 12 Bcf above the five-year average, the government said.

Ahead of the EIA report, Natural Gas Intelligence (NGI) reported that a Bloomberg survey showed a median prediction of 47 Bcf based on 13 estimates ranging from 39 Bcf to 56 Bcf. Reuters polled 18 analysts, who came up with the same range of estimates but with a median increase of 49 Bcf. NGI’s model projected a 47 Bcf build.

Daily June Natural Gas

Daily Forecast

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through $2.860 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. A move through $2.735 will change the main trend to down.

The main range is $3.082 to $2.521. The market is currently testing its 50% to 61.8% retracement zone at $2.802 to $2.868. This zone is controlling the near-term direction of the June natural gas futures contract.

Look for the market to possibly accelerate to the upside on a breakout over $2.868 with $2.958 the next likely upside target.

A break back under $2.802 will…

Read More: Natural Gas Price Fundamental Daily Forecast

2021-04-25 20:20:32

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