UPDATE 1-U.S. natgas highest since November as hurricane shuts output, cold forecasts
(Adds latest prices)
Oct 9 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures jumped to their highest since November on Friday as
production fell to its lowest in over two years after Gulf Coast energy firms shut wells ahead of
Hurricane Delta and on forecasts for colder weather and higher demand in mid October.
That price increase came despite a drop in gas flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants
as operators either shut or reduced their Louisiana facilities before Delta makes landfall.
Delta was expected to slam into Southwest Louisiana near the Cameron LNG export plant later Friday.
The storm has already caused about 12,000 power outages in Louisiana, according to local utilities.
Front-month gas futures rose 11.4 cents, or 4.3%, to settle at $2.741 per million British
thermal units, their highest close since Nov. 8.
After rising 19% over the past two weeks, the front-month was up almost 13% this week.
Data provider Refinitiv said output in the Lower 48 U.S. states would drop from a 26-month low of
84.0 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) earlier this week to a preliminary 83.1 bcfd on Friday as Gulf
Coast producers shut wells.
The U.S. Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement said energy firms shut 1.7 bcfd, or 62%, of
offshore Gulf of Mexico gas production.
In Louisiana, meanwhile, Cameron shut its LNG export plant on Thursday, while Cheniere Energy Inc
reduced gas flows to its Sabine Pass facility from a five-month high of 4.0 bcfd earlier in the
week to a preliminary 2.1 bcfd on Friday. Cheniere said it planned to keep Sabine operating with a
small "ride-out" crew.
Refinitiv projected demand would slip from 87.0 bcfd this week to 85.3 bcfd next week before
jumping to 93.2 bcfd in two weeks as the weather turns colder and with LNG plants in Louisiana and Cove
Point in Maryland expected to return.
Week ended Week ended Year ago Five-year
Oct 9 Oct 2 Oct 9 average
(Forecast) (Actual) Oct 9
U.S. natgas storage (bcf): +63 +75 +102 +87 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast Current Day Prior Day Prior Year 10-Year 30-Year Norm
Norm
U.S. GFS HDDs 119 117 75 73 131
U.S. GFS CDDs 57 52 99 72 39
U.S. GFS TDDs 176 169 174 145 170
Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
Prior Week Current Week Next Week This Week Five-Year
Last Year Average For
Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production 86.6 85.8 84.7 94.2 80.1
U.S. Imports from Canada 5.9 6.7 6.5 7.3 7.6
U.S. LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
Total U.S. Supply 92.6 92.5 91.2 101.5 87.9
U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 1.9
U.S. Exports to Mexico 6.0 5.9 5.8 5.9 4.5
U.S. LNG Exports 6.4 7.1 6.5 6.1 2.3
U.S. Commercial 5.3 6.0 5.7 5.8 6.7
U.S. Residential 4.9 6.2 5.7 5.8 7.0
U.S. Power Plant 30.6 31.3 31.3 31.1 26.8
U.S. Industrial 21.8 22.1 21.7 21.5 21.0
U.S. Plant Fuel 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.3
U.S. Pipe Distribution 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.8
U.S. Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Total U.S. Consumption 68.9 71.8 70.7 70.4 67.7
Total U.S. Demand 83.4 87.0 85.3 84.6 76.4 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub Current Day Prior Day
Henry Hub 1.49 2.01
Transco Z6 New York 0.67 1.15
PG&E Citygate 3.86 3.97
Dominion South 0.64 1.12
Chicago Citygate 1.19 1.59
Algonquin Citygate 0.78 1.34
SoCal Citygate 2.38 2.92
Waha Hub 0.89 0.40 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub Current Day Prior Day
New England 22.00 20.25
PJM West 18.50 19.75
Ercot North 21.50 24.00
Mid C 24.75 28.67
Palo Verde 22.00 26.50
SP-15 28.50 32.25
(Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Andrea Ricci and Marguerita Choy)
Read More: UPDATE 1-U.S. natgas highest since November as hurricane shuts output, cold forecasts
2020-10-09 13:58:00